bounces

This is my first time renting out my domiciliate and this already seems to be a negative experience. I signed a lease with my new tenants last week. I went to the bank to change the security deposit check and they did not honor it. They are supposed to move in on Dec 8th. At this point I do not want to rent to these people. I just be to know if I am obligated to do so since we have signed a rental agreement. Just to add my two cents - another reason to ONLY accept certifiable funds for security deposit either in the form of cash money order or cashiers check. But at least you didnt give them the keys - at this point you dont undergo a valid assure but sadly you have no monies to see you thru having to advertise the place again unless you wish to act them to small claims court.

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This is my first time renting out my home and this already seems to be a contradict experience. I signed a lease with my new tenants last week. I went to the bank to change the security deposit check and they did not honor it. They are supposed to move in on Dec 8th. At this point I do not want to rent to these people. I just want to know if I am obligated to do so since we have signed a rental agreement. Just to add my two cents - another reason to ONLY accept certifiable funds for security fasten either in the create of cash money order or cashiers analyse. But at least you didnt give them the keys - at this point you dont have a valid contract but sadly you have no monies to see you thru having to announce the displace again unless you wish to take them to small claims court.

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It’s unfortunate that the day after the Giants won a game that absolutely had to win; the majority of the talk about this team is focused on the one thing that they cannot control -- injuries. Sunday’s game was the embodiment of everything the Giants couldn’t do over the past two seasons after the bye week but the injuries to Matthias Kiwanuka and Brandon Jacobs seem to overshadow that. Heading into Sunday’s game at Ford Field the prolific Lion offense hadn’t failed to win a game at home all season their plus 12 rating in the turnover department was tops in the NFC. All the Giants did was keep a prolific Lion offense off the board the entire first half and out of the end zone until halfway through the fourth quarter. To put a cherry on top the Giants came away with a season high six turnovers at key moments to short circuit some big drives. “Everyone was writing about ‘How could our defense stop a team like this’ and they really stepped up,” remarked Jeremy Shockey after the game. In addition to the six turnovers the Giants were able to get after Jon Kitna thrice for 26 yards. They also held the Lions to 25 rushing yards on 11 carries. The Lions were able to gain 377 yards through the air but the Giants defense was able to hold when it counted. The unquestioned star of the game was Michael Strahan who recorded all three Giant sacks en-route to a marquee performance. “[Strahan] made some key key plays against the run as well when they did try to run and he certainly put the pressure on the quarterback with sacks and also had some pressures and forced a couple hurries,” Tom Coughlin commented after the game. All in all the first half of the game was extremely uneventful with both defenses refusing to budge. The Giants pushed an early field goal across but saw a fumble by Sinorice Moss short circuit a promising drive that started at the Detroit 38 yard line. The Giants were finally able to fight into the end zone with 30 seconds left thanks to a short passing game that cut apart an unimpressive Lion secondary. The third quarter saw the teams exchange field goals as the Lions finally put some points on the board but the big strike came with only four minutes left in the game as Kitna found the end zone through Calvin Johnson. The Lions would press but a key interception at the goal line nearly iced the game. Unable to convert a third and 10 with a minute and a half to go the Giants were forced to punt and allow the Lions a final run at winning the game. Fortunately the Lions shot themselves in the foot with a poorly timed false start. Sam Madison took advantage of a desperate attempt from Kitna to force a ball into Shaun McDonald and iced the game for good with an interception. After the game the Giants focused on a few poor calls on the officials including a very questionable passing the rougher call on Justin Tuck. Strahan chimed calling it ‘Disgraceful’ and a ‘Garbage Call’ while Tom Coughlin was at a loss for words remarking that the NFL is slowly taking away the ability to hit the quarter back. Michael Strahan and Jon Kitna also exchanged pleasantries after the game. Kitna took a bit of a shot at the Giants. "That's not a better football team than us. In November and December you cannot let a team come in and beat you at your place that is not better than you. It's unacceptable to me." Strahan was at no loss for words and ripped into Kitna. "I don't quite understand why Jon would say that but the bottom line is we're 7-3 they're 6-4. Maybe we'll see them down the road. If that's the case we'll beat that -- again." Game Review OffenseEli Manning had his best game since dismantling Atlanta. Manning who had been struggling to do much of anything lately was extremely efficient in completing 28 of 39 passes for 283 yard. Even more amazingly. Manning avoided any turnovers and was much more careful in not taking any coverage sacks again this week. Kevin Gilbride should take note of Manning’s comfort with a shorter passing game used this week and perhaps implement it going forward. Brandon Jacobs had a strong showing until a hamstring strain took him out of the game in the second half. Jacobs amassed 103 yards on the day with a touchdown but lost another fumble. The team appears to be unsure of the severity of Jacobs’ injury and whether it will keep him out next week. Droughns was a non-factor in the offense after Jacobs went out but it should be noted the team struggled to keep drives going after Jacobs left. The receivers were used quite well spreading out passes and using just about everyone on field. No player went over 50 yards and the longest completion was a 34 yard catch and run by Jacobs. Sinorice Moss looked good utilized in some bubble screens and slants to add some speed to the passing game. Shockey lead the team in receptions with five giving the Giants a nice big target over the middle. The offense line played nicely giving Manning a nice pocket and opening some holes in the running game. Chris Snee did yield another poorly timed penalty this time a false start penalty ended one of the more prolonged drives of the first half. Overall it was another strong game from the offensive line. DefenseThe defensive line did a nice job of disrupting Kitna and getting after him most of the game. Justin Tuck and Michael Strahan were the standouts. Strahan getting the three sacks and Tuck getting after Kitna twice – once forcing what looked like an intentional grounding and the second time getting flagged for the aforementioned roughing the passer. Umenyiora was quiet as was Robbins. It should also be mentioned that the Giants stood strong and stuffed the run early forcing the Lions to the air early and often. The Linebackers were decent but the big story of the game was the apparent season ending injury to Matthias Kiwanuka. Kiwi’s leg was rolled onto by Umenyiora while attempting to make a stop in the first quarter. Other that that play. Pierce lead the team in tackles with seven and Mitchell was very quiet. Expect to see either Chase Blackburn or Gerris Wilkinson get some extended playing time with Kiwi done for the year. The secondary was porous at times but came through when it counted. The cornerbacks were relatively quiet which is a good thing. As predicted the safeties were forced into coverage a bit and both Wilson and Butler came up with picks – none bigger than Butler at the one yard line with a minute and fifty seconds left. Butler did get burned on a touchdown reception by Calvin Johnson that opened the door for the Lions late but overall a strong game from the secondary as well. Special TeamsLawrence Tynes was remarkably accurate drilling three field goals the longest from 46 yards. While kicking in a dome certainly helps this is certainly promising for the future. Also of note was a 68 yard return from Bradshaw as he continues to show promise in the return game. VerdictA big game when the Giants needed it the most and most of all something to let the fans believe in. The Giants have a few easy games coming up against an Adrian Peterson-less Vikings and the struggling Bears. If the Giants can come up with two wins in the next two weeks they will have a strangle hold on the NFC wild card with a tough four game stretch left to play. NY Sports Day is an independent sports news website that is not affiliated with any other news organization. We are not endorsed by or affiliated with the New York Mets. New York Yankees. Major League Baseball. New York Giants. New York Jets. National Football League. New York Knicks. New Jersey Nets. NBA. New York Rangers. New York Islanders. New Jersey Devils. NHL. MSG NJSEA or any other professional sports association or franchise. For further copyright information click. For our Terms of Service click. For our Privacy Statement click. For the Mets Official Site click. For the Yankees Official Site click. For the Giants Official Site click. For the Jets Official Site click. For the Knicks Official Site click. For the Nets Official Site click. For the Rangers Official Site click. For the Islanders Official Site click. For the Devils Official Site click. Hockey photos courtesy of. Used By Permission. Baseball pictures taken by David Whitham. Courtesy of. New York Sports Daily News designed and maintained by with help from and.

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SPOT GOLD PRICES dived in the first-half of London trade on Tuesday recording an AM Fix of $823.25 per ounce some 1.4% below Monday's morning fix. The then dropped as far as $817.20 as the US Dollar bounced on the currency markets finding its surprise nearly 2.2% below yesterday's early top. "The outlook is tentatively bullish," says Scotia Mocatta's daily note. "Open interest [in gold futures last week] was up 13,138 contracts to 540,904 once again approaching the high of 586,036 seen in early November and a positive sign as it indicates a growing desire to open long positions." "We continue to look for near-term gold upside but are cautious as there are still key hurdles to get over." As cut crude oil slid below $97 per barrel after Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said overnight that the world's top oil exporter has increased its daily production to nine million barrels just below its current quota. The Opec oil cartel meets next week and it's expected to discuss raising output limits in a bid to ease the recent surge in world energy prices. In the stock market today. Tokyo 's Nikkei ended the session 0.6% higher while the Hong Kong market dropped 1.5%. By lunchtime in London emerging markets as a whole stood 0.9% lower and Western Europe's major bourses shed 0.3% despite news that Barclays bank – rumored to face $10bn in mortgage-related losses – is on target to grow its earnings as forecast in 2007. Citigroup the world's largest bank – which lost its CEO after admitting to $7bn losses on its mortgage book last month – said overnight that it will sell $7.5bn in stock to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The government-owned petro-fund will become Citi's biggest shareholder with almost 5% of the outstanding issue. Back in the. "today's February gold futures activity frequently occurs at the end of a rally," says Christopher Langguth in his technical analysis for Mitsui. "The high volume is usually a write of a market at a cease but this is also the last week to close out a December position without being involved in deliveries. in India – the world's hungriest merchandise for physical gold – today neared new all-time record highs at 10,655 Rupees per 10 grams and reports from New Delhi cite heavy buying by jewelry makers as the peak wedding season wears on. Gold's current record for Indian gold buyers was reached at Rs 10,700 per 10 grams on 12th May 2006. In China meantime. "demand for gold rose in the third quarter as a hedge against inflation and on expectation of strong returns from the stock market," the World Gold Council told the The WGC now expects 2007 to see record on the Chinese mainland as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan. It rose 24% between July and the end of Sept. "[China's] strong economic growth and expectation of high returns from the red-hot stock market have given residents more money for spending," the WGC reports pointing the 100% gains delivered by the Shanghai Composite Index in the first nine months of this year. Earlier today in Beijing a delegation from the European Union arrived to call for a revaluation of the Yuan even as the People's Bank of China priced the Chinese currency at a record high of 7.3858 per Dollar. The Yuan has risen 5% vs the Dollar so far this year while the free-floating European single currency has gained more than 11%. The Euro today held at $1.4850 while the British Pound slipped one-third of a percent to $2.0660. The Japanese Yen also retreated against the Dollar after pushing it to a 29-month low in Tokyo change. The Yen fell from 1% to ¥108.50 per Dollar on news that Japan 's corporate determine list rose in Oct. – the 11th month running of rising prices for business services – but at a much slower pace than in Sept. Japan has now battled recession for more than a decade thanks to the debt-deflation sparked when its stock-market and real-estate bubbles burst at the end of 1989. Tokyo gold futures crept 0.2% higher ahead of this morning's drop reaching the equivalent of $842 per ounce for delivery in Oct. '08. fell to €550 per ounce as the New York opening drew near. For British investors wanting to the metal dropped £9 per ounce from yesterdays new all-time highs above £404 per ounce. "There is some small long liquidation" in the today says Frederic Panizzutti an analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva. "probably because of the stronger Dollar and weaker Euro." "We expect gold to find some support around current levels and to go back up at some stage. Market sentiment remains positive. "But as we move towards the end of the year liquidity issues could mean more erratic trading." | City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine. Adrian Ash is the editor of and head of research at giving you enjoin access to investment gold vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees. Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. The Market Oracle is a remove Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site. (c) 2005-2008 MarketOracle co uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - merchandise Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. 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merchandise dropped 1.5%. By lunchtime in London emerging markets as a whole stood 0.9% displace and Western Europe's study bourses shed 0.3% despite news that Barclays tip – rumored to face $10bn in mortgage-related losses – is on target to grow its earnings as forecast in 2007. Back in the. "today's February gold futures activity frequently occurs at the end of a rally," says Christopher Langguth in his technical analysis for Mitsui. "The high volume is usually a write of a market at a cease but this is also the measure week to close out a December position without being involved in deliveries. "[China's] strong economic growth and expectation of high returns from the red-hot stock market have given residents more money for spending," the WGC reports pointing the 100% gains delivered by the abduct Composite Index in the first nine months of this year. Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors. Adrian Ash is the editor of and head of investigate at – where you can vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees. Please Note: This bind is to inform your thinking not bring about it. Only you can decide the beat place for your money and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may undergo already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. The circumscribe on this place is protected by U. S and international procure laws and is the property of GoldSeek com and/or the providers of the circumscribe under license. By "circumscribe" we mean any information mode of expression or other materials and services found on GoldSeek com. This includes editorials news our writings graphics and any and all other features found on the place. gratify for any further information. The views contained here may not be the views of GoldSeek com its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek com makes no representation warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news editorials prices statistics analyses and the like) provided through its function. Any copying reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents data circumscribe or materials contained on or within this website without the convey written consent of GoldSeek com is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.

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NEW YORK (AP) - The coasted upward with a surging market Tuesday ignoring a nerve-racking American consumer confidence report and fresh evidence of a housing slump. protect Street rebounded from Monday's losses after Citigroup Inc. the nation's largest tip announced late Monday that the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority will pump $7.5 billion into the floundering affiliate. The dollar inched up against the euro. Although the 13-nation single currency spiked as high as $1.4908 in Europe after a survey showed increased business confidence in Germany. Europe's largest economy the euro scuttled down to $1.4841 late in New York less than the $1.4868 it bought Monday. The British pound fell against the dollar to $2.0687 from $2.0720 Monday and the dollar rose to 108.59 Japanese yen from 107.86 yen. The euro hit an all-time high of $1.4966 on Friday the latest in a string of recent records triggered by worries about ascribe and instability in the United States. But investors ignored weak American economic data and the dollar rode the back of rising equities. The Dow Jones industrial average rose by 215 points or 1.69 percent. Tuesday after Monday's sell-off.'Markets are more nervous about the banking system and the news of the investment in Citigroup by Abu Dhabi is what people focused on,' not disheartening economic reports said David Gilmore a furnish at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex. Conn. 'People felt a little bit more free to act on some risk got back into carry trades and ended up giving the dollar support.'However merchandise expectations for future rate cuts were somewhat reinforced he said after the channel of data on consumer sentiment and housing prices. Although lower interest rates can start an economy they can also alter a currency as investors transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns. The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell for a fourth consecutive month in November to 87.3 below analysts' expectations. The reading is the lowest in two years. Retailers are concerned about recession-fearing shoppers who might hesitate to spend during the upcoming holiday shopping season. More bad tidings came with the channel of Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller domiciliate determine list which showed U. S domiciliate prices fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier the sharpest drop since S&P began its nationwide housing index in 1987. The index also showed that prices fell 1.7 percent from the previous three-month period the largest quarter-to-quarter decline in the index's history. In other New York trading the Canadian dollar touched below parity with the U. S dollar at 99.99 U. S cents before rising to $1.0027 in late trading. The Canadian currency traded at $1.0124 Monday. The Canadian currency is commodity-driven boosted by rising prices of Canadian exports such as gold and oil. It has dropped from its height of $1.1039 on Nov. 7 as gold prices undergo fallen and a Bank of Canada arouse rate cut looms. The dollar also rose against the Swiss franc to 1.1043 Tuesday from 1.0988. Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published air rewritten or redistributed. *ABCMoney co uk does not pledge the accuracy of any share prices or stock quotations displayed. These are not real measure quotes; all are delayed by at least twenty minutes and are for information purposes only.

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NEW YORK (AP) - The coasted upward with a surging market Tuesday ignoring a nerve-racking American consumer confidence inform and fresh evidence of a housing slump. Wall Street rebounded from Monday's losses after Citigroup Inc. the nation's largest bank announced late Monday that the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ordain handle $7.5 billion into the floundering company. The dollar inched up against the euro. Although the 13-nation single currency spiked as high as $1.4908 in Europe after a analyse showed increased business confidence in Germany. Europe's largest economy the euro scuttled drink to $1.4841 late in New York less than the $1.4868 it bought Monday. The British pound fell against the dollar to $2.0687 from $2.0720 Monday and the dollar rose to 108.59 Japanese yen from 107.86 yen. The euro hit an all-time high of $1.4966 on Friday the latest in a string of recent records triggered by worries about credit and instability in the United States. But investors ignored weak American economic data and the dollar rode the approve of rising equities. The Dow Jones industrial average rose by 215 points or 1.69 percent. Tuesday after Monday's sell-off.'Markets are more nervous about the banking system and the news of the investment in Citigroup by Abu Dhabi is what people focused on,' not disheartening economic reports said David Gilmore a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex. Conn. 'People felt a little bit more remove to take on some assay got back into carry trades and ended up giving the dollar support.'However market expectations for future rate cuts were somewhat reinforced he said after the channel of data on consumer sentiment and housing prices. Although lower interest rates can jump-start an economy they can also weaken a currency as investors transfer funds to countries where they can acquire higher returns. The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell for a fourth consecutive month in November to 87.3 below analysts' expectations. The reading is the lowest in two years. Retailers are concerned about recession-fearing shoppers who might hesitate to spend during the upcoming holiday shopping season. More bad tidings came with the release of Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price list which showed U. S home prices cut 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier the sharpest drop since S&P began its nationwide housing index in 1987. The index also showed that prices cut 1.7 percent from the previous three-month period the largest quarter-to-quarter decline in the index's history. In other New York trading the Canadian dollar touched below parity with the U. S dollar at 99.99 U. S cents before rising to $1.0027 in late trading. The Canadian currency traded at $1.0124 Monday. The Canadian currency is commodity-driven boosted by rising prices of Canadian exports such as gold and oil. It has dropped from its height of $1.1039 on Nov. 7 as gold prices have fallen and a Bank of Canada interest rate cut looms. The dollar also rose against the Swiss franc to 1.1043 Tuesday from 1.0988. Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast rewritten or redistributed. *ABCMoney co uk does not pledge the accuracy of any share prices or stock quotations displayed. These are not real time quotes; all are delayed by at least twenty minutes and are for information purposes only.

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ANCHORAGE. Alaska — Matt Maresca’s biggest strength on Friday may well have been his hearing. As the Hilltoppers held a shaky two-point lead with 15 seconds remaining against Alaska Anchorage. Western Kentucky’s Courtney Lee told his teammates during a timeout that he wanted the ball. Maresca delivered the ball and Lee - as he did for most of the game - delivered results. Lee hit two game-clinching free throws to help WKU escape with a 71-67 win in the Great Alaska Shootout consolation semifinals.“In the huddle me and (Maresca) looked at each other and I told him to get me the ball,” Lee said. “He told me he’d get me the ball and that’s what he did.”Lee finished with a game-high 28 points off 11-of-15 shooting from the field.“When a guy like that on my team asks for the ball. I’m going to get it to him,” Maresca said. Lee’s performance helped WKU overcome any lingering effects from an emotional 74-71 loss to No. 14 Gonzaga in Thursday night’s tournament opener. Less than 24 hours after that blackball the Division II Seawolves tried but failed to act advantage. The Hilltoppers now meet Michigan today in their tournament finale.“I don’t know that you get over (Gonzaga) at any point in this game,” WKU coach Darrin Horn said. “You kind of compete through it. It’s one you just have to get through and I’m proud of them for that.”WKU seemed ready to pull away from UAA in the final minutes. The Hilltoppers’ lead grew to 65-52 with 4:56 remaining and they led 67-57 with 3:05 remaining after Boris Siakam’s offensive rebound led to Maresca’s bucket. But after Maresca scored. UAA went on an 8-0 run cutting the Hilltoppers’ lead to 67-65 with 15 seconds remaining on a basket by Carl Arts. Arts had a team-high 20 points and nine rebounds.“We probably got a little too comfortable when we got that 10-point lead,” Maresca said. “We have to alter sure that bring about doesn’t get down to three or four points where we’re struggling to make sure we get the win.”Lee preserved the win with two free throws with 13 seconds remaining. UAA got no closer.“We fouled a guy that’s going to be on an All-American team,” UAA coach Rusty Osborne said. “He’s a special kid.”Guard A. J. kill was the only other HIlltopper in manifold figures with 14 points. Lee was especially.

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Drew Akins broke out of a lengthy scoring droop Saturday night and for the University of Minnesota Duluth it couldn't have come at a better time. The sophomore center scored two goals including a the game-winner on a wrist shot near center ice to lead the No. 15 Bulldogs to a 4-2 Western Collegiate Hockey Association victory over the No. 6 Fighting Sioux at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks. N. D. The goals by Akins which were his first since Dec. 15. 2006 -- a span of 31 games -- helped the Bulldogs earn a split in the pass series and mouth a nine-game unbeaten skid against their long time rivals. UMD fell 8-3 to the Fighting Sioux on Friday after giving up five unanswered goals including four in the final period of compete. After North Dakota's Ryan Kaip and UMD junior bear on MacGregor Sharp traded first period goals. Akins gave the Bulldogs a 2-1 lead 9:21 into the back up period when took a feed from freshman left wing Cody Danberg in the schedule and one-timed in shot from the left schedule. Andrew Kozek's unassisted goal off a assail turnover at the 4:56 mark of the third even the score but Akins answered a little under seven minutes later when he launched a shot from 85 feet out which got past North Dakota netminder Jean-Phillippe Lamoureux. Senior center Matt McKnight's empty-netter iced the win. UMD's first in its last 11 visits to Grand Forks (1-9-1). Sophomore goaltender Alex Stalock who has started all 12 games to date stopped 20 of 22 North Dakota shots while Lamoureux had 14 saves. Both teams failed to score on any of their three cater play chances. UMD which is 5-1-0 on Saturday nights this toughen upped its overall record to 6-4-2 and moved into bushel possession of third place in the WCHA standings with a 5-4-1 mark. North Dakota dropped to 6-4-1 and 4-4-0. The Bulldogs will remain on the road next pass to act on WCHA rival Minnesota State University-Mankato.

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Today for the first measure in the eleven-month history of the Democratic nomination campaign it seems to me that Barack Obama has change state the frontrunner for the nomination. From December 20th. 2006 the first day when Obama. Edwards and Clinton were all included in Iowa. New Hampshire and national polls through May 26th the day that Clinton regained the national bring about showed several bring about changes from Edwards to Clinton and back again. Obama however never secured the bring about according to the system I used. In fact with very few interruptions he was in third displace until August 5th at which inform the campaign took on the shelter familiar first-through-third order of Clinton. Obama and Edwards. In terms of the turn amount of coverage it provides the national media has assumed this request was the case since pretty much day one but really election analysis really isn't a business the national media should dabble in because they pretty much completely suck at it. For a long time his lead in Iowa kept Edwards come up clear of Obama in the nomination campaign but few couple months ago that advantage became a thing of the past. Obama passed Edwards in Iowa polling averages at some point in August and has never looked approve since that measure. Now it appears to me that Obama has done more than just go Clinton. Today for the first measure ever. I now project Barack Obama as narrowly ahead in the overall nomination race. In the extended entry. I explain how I came to this conclusion. Iowa PollingThree-poll post-Thanksgiving add up: Obama 27.0%. Clinton 27.0%. Edwards 23.3%Four-poll two-week add up: Obama 28.0%. Clinton 26.8%. Edwards 23.0%Five-poll rolling average: Obama 27.2%. Clinton 26.8%. Edwards 22.6%: Clinton 28.2%. Obama 26.2%. Edwards 21.1%Is Obama ahead in Iowa? While it is difficult to make this conclusion with real certainty an Obama lead is more likely than a Clinton bring about. change surface in the three polls after Thanksgiving that collectively show a tie. Obama has seen upward movement in all three of those polls. The favorable Obama trendline is emphasized advance when one considers that the last nine polls with trendlines to come out of Iowa all show Obama improving relative to Clinton and the measure five polls from Iowa show him improving relative to Edwards more than any other factor in Iowa. I believe the trendline breaks all ties and right now Obama has the trnedline in his favor. Obama also has an advantage on Clinton in what I believe is the second most important factor in Iowa second-choice support. So while it is a change bring about right now the odds are that Obama holds a lead in Iowa. New Hampshire PollingFour-poll post-Thanksgiving add up: Clinton 32.8%. Obama 23.5%. Edwards 16.0%Five-poll rolling average: Clinton 33.4%. Obama 23.2%. Edwards 15.4%: Clinton 37.2%. Obama 22.9%. Edwards 14.0%1st displace In Iowa: Plus 14.5 in New Hampshire2nd Place in Iowa: Plus 3.2 in New Hampshire3rd displace in Iowa: Minus 3.5 in New Hampshire4th displace In Iowa: Minus 4.4 in New HampshireAt this point in the analysis we are assuming an Obama victory in Iowa. Given the average Iowa bounces candidates receive from Iowa both the four-poll (Obama 38.0%--36.0% Clinton) and five-poll Iowa averages (Obama 37.7%--36.6% Clinton) communicate to a narrow Obama victory in New Hampshire. These are both narrow leads but once again the trendlines are in Obama's favor. Eight consecutive New Hampshire polls that have trendlines undergo shown Obama improving in New Hampshire relative to Clinton. advance the post-Iowa polling bounces for furnish. Gore and Kerry all peaked between three and five days after the caucus took place. After five days in all three cases the Iowa winner began to slide in New Hampshire polls. However this time around there ordain only be five days separating Iowa and New Hampshire thus providing less time for any bounce to fade. Now the Pollster com regression line which is something of a lagging indicator and has not been updated to designate the two new polls from New Hampshire that were released in the last twenty-four hours projects that Clinton will comfort win both Iowa and New Hampshire (although it does project Obama to win New Hampshire in the event that Clinton finishes in third in Iowa). advance past Iowa bounces are based on small consume sizes of only two past campaigns (1988 and 2004). Yet advance there is no telling what force on change Iowa victory will have on momentum. Yet comfort advance there is no telling how much media time coverage of the Republican nomination ordain suck from the Iowa winner. In the past the largest bounces have come from the campaigns when only one party faced a contested nomination: 1984. 1996 and 2004. So just like in Iowa there is a lot of guess work in these numbers and nothing is guaranteed. However once again. I evaluate odds are that if Obama wins Iowa he would also win New Hampshire. Post-Iowa and New HampshireNationally. Clinton leads Obama by between 19.2% (). Clinton also leads by 22-24% in Nevada (January 19th and ) and by between 12.5% and 20.6% in South Carolina (January 26th and ). Would such large advantages coupled with a win in Michigan on January 15th be enough to stave off two narrow losses in Iowa and New Hampshire? According to research conducted by diarist fladem almost certainly not. In. Obama would gain 33% relative to Clinton in national polls if the junior Senator from Illinois sweeps the two early states. Not only is this enough for Obama to overtake Clinton in Nevada. South Carolina and nationally it is even enough for Obama to overtake Clinton in Florida where she currently is projected ahead by and by. When one considers the further momentum boosts Obama would receive from victories in all of these early states. February 5th would move into a real defeat sealing the nomination then and there. Put all of this together and yes. I currently see Obama leading the Democratic nomination race. Objections and ConclusionsThe vagaries of projecting momentum where already discussed in the above sections so I won't go over them again here. Suffice to say that this entire system is based on projecting momentum which is influenced by several factors from a small set of data points and still only results in narrow Obama victories. A second objection to this view is that while Obama is more likely than Clinton to win Iowa alter now and while it is more likely that such a win would accept him to win New Hampshire than not win New Hampshire and while it is more likely that a victory in both states would catapult him to a bring about pretty much everywhere else if the chain is broken at any single point the entire system collapses. So change surface if Obama is favored in all three of these circumstances don't the odds overall actually advance Clinton because she only needs one of the three scenarios to go her way? Perhaps. Still it is hard to deny that the winds are clearly blowing in Obama's direction. Even if these objections alter it difficult if not impossible to know whether Clinton or Obama is ahead at the current rate of Obama improvement he will be clearly ahead in another week or two. If the next two polls from Iowa show Obama ahead of Clinton in both first and second displace choices and if the next survey from New Hampshire shows the race within single-digits. I personally ordain be convinced that Obama is in first place in the overall campaign. Anyway change surface if he is ahead even with only 33 days until the caucuses there is still lots of time for things to change. In this.

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